So.... I left the forums for like 3 days and found 2 completely different things going on.
1. Goblins is no longer a DTB... WTF? This is the deck that everyone based their decks against for years and now it just falls off the radar all of a sudden? WTF?
2. Where in the world did 43 land come from? I knew it was an ok deck and all, but a DTW? Seriously?
3. Why is UGW thresh still a DTB? Honestly I perfer the white splash personally o ver the red splash, but the red splash seems to be strictly better... at least that is what the records are saying (red been everywhere in T8s, but I haven't seen UGW nowhere).
4. Is Aluren really good enough to still be in the metagame forums? I have seen some random well placements, but no consistant data to keep it there.
5. If Tarmogoyf is soooo good, then why isn't it in every teir 1 deck?
I personally agree that he is good and all, but he is still just a creature.
I will be honest, I am a landstill player and the format has been treating me very well recently (lots of thresh and other aggro-control decks, along with breakfast).
I just don't understand how the printing of one card change the entire format sooooo drastically.
1. Goblins was its own demise. People pretty much refuse to play decks with bad Goblins matchups still due to its amazingly power and consistency. It is showing up less and less now. I am working on an article about it, I just need to finish it and submit it to someone who takes those.
2. Lands! (as it is ACTUALLY called; people incorrectly called it 43 Lands and now the names has stuck).
3. Strictly better means it is better is ALL possible situations. UGw Thresh can run Gaddock Teeg and Meddling Mage, both still excellent anti-combo cards, UGr Thresh still cannot. You choose which of the best three variants, UG, UGr, or UGw, you need for your meta.
4. Aluren is doing better than Goblins right now, so I would not complain.
5. Because Tarmogoyf sucks in Control and some Combo and there are two Control decks and one Combo dck that does not benefit from Goyf in the LMF. Tarmogoyf is amazing in Aggro and, especially, Aggro-Control. And it is EXTREMELY good in those.
How does one card change the format so drastically? Imagine Vial Goblins without Goblin Lackey. Or with Goblin Recruiter. If a creature is of sufficient power, it can easily warp the format.
Tarmogoyf is normally large enough so that Swords to Plowshares is the only commonly played removal spell that can kill it, strong enough that every other creature near is cost is much smaller, and cheap enough to be dropped early on, or with leaving mana open for other activities.
here's my question, what is the point of even including european legacy tournament results if we don't credit the T8 appearances simply because they haven't shown up in america?
The different regions of the american metagame are every bit as different as the difference between america and europe, this seems to be an unnecessary bias.
All of the changes have been determined by our tournament analysis over the last six months. Whatever changes you see, whether you like them or not, are fitting with the current metagame trends. It isn't as if this shit happens by random or anything.
I still think it's foolish to completely remove Goblins from the DTB/DTW list. For a long time, it was the Legacy metagame, and even now, it still defines a significant portion of it.
So let's exercise some reasonable judgement here. If you show up to a tourney, you're going to play against Goblins. And let's be honest here, unless you're playing storm combo, you've got a 50% chance to lose to Goblins too.We recognize that this system is neither perfect nor infallible. By analyzing only Top 8 data, we do not necessarily create an accurate or full representation of the decks that make up the metagame.
I think people play red over white the majority of the time because in the first few rounds of the tournament, UGw scrubs out to the Goblin decks that UGr considers a bye. Then when you get to the top 8, the white splash looks a lot better, but the top 8 won't have near the diversity that you see in the early rounds.
It's obviously metagame dependent, like Cait_Sith said. You gamble on whether you're better off to be prepared for aggro or the mirror.
The numbers don't lie. In the last 6 significant Legacy tournaments, Goblins has T8ed once. Goblins demise was written on the wall. It barely achieved DTB status last update.
What I like about our LMF update method is that it aims to remove as much personal bias as possible. I friggin' hate Thresh, and, to this day, I swear it's a bad deck. Imagine an opinion like that could sway the LMF.
Less opinon; more data. End of story.
the DTB thread needs less Aluren and more Ichorid, but the rest seems alright, goblins has been losing ground and ANY form of thresh is a DTB in itself...
In addition to goblins, are storm decks on the decline as well?
I look at the Decks to Beat Forum and the combo decks listed involve graveyard strategies rather than storm cards.
I know Breakfast is good but is it, along with Thresh, that much of a storm combo killer?
Inclusion in the LMF is based on a clearly-defined system of data analysis that is designed to be as objective as possible. This system is not perfect, but there is no personal bias or black magic involved; numbers are plugged in and the threads get moved.
So far, none of the concerns brought up in this thread even attempt to transcend the realms of subjective reasoning and/or local metagame distortion, so they offer little meaningful criticism of the LMF or its contents. I'm sorry if you still think it's important to prepare for Goblins, or that you don't think 43lands is a metagame concern, but the performances of those decks seem to indicate otherwise. What else can the LMF reflect?
That said, if anyone has some ideas about how to improve the selection system, or even criticism of the philosophy behind it (maybe you don't think the process should be objective?), by all means speak your mind.
Exactly - e.g. why excluding Belcher because it isn't part of the American meta while 2/3 of the named tournaments used to make the analysis are non-American?
Sure, it may be the general guideline of the LMF forum to exclude these decks, but can't we simply add a tag (something like [NAR] (non-America-relevant)) to those decks that are relevant for non-American metas instead of kicking them out?
Edit: At least the results for the American meta and the non-American meta should be shown seperate so everybody can draw his/her own conclusions. The current mish-mash does kinda ruin the information value behind these numbers.
Attention lonelybaritone and TeenieBopper!
Goblins is still a good deck. While it may be a good deck, it's suffering from Performance Anxiety--it just can't get it up in a 33+ tournament. By "get it up", I mean "make Top 8". If the little green men take the little blue pill and make more Top 8s, then it'll return to DTB status. Just because it was a DTB for 2 years or whatever doesn't mean it qualifies as a DTB in October, 2007. Members Only jackets were the absolute shit twenty years ago, but they have since fallen out of style.
He knows. His old ass was in High School back then.
I'm not certain why Belcher, which has more showings than any but 2 other decks, is dumped, but it's an issue we can discuss. You have to remember though, this site is primarily aimed at the US metagame, which is why the scales are tipped our way when it comes to large events. It may suck, but it's the way it is.
And that's reason why I don't get it. By mixing American and non-American metagames, valuable information is lost or quite deceiving. Just have a look on the combined list:
DTB
Threshold - 16
Landstill - 5
DTW
Fish - 3
Cephalid Breakfast – 2
Aluren – 2 (both lists were recorded as Innovator Aluren)
43 Land - 2
OUT
Vial Goblins – 1
CRET Belcher - 4 - (No current USA appearances)
Now let's break it down into American and non-American metagame, only naming relevant, non-rogue decks:
Non-American metas: 4 Tournaments = 32 Top 8 slots
Threshold 9
CRET Belcher 4
Landstill 3
Baseruption 2
Survival Variants 2
UW Fish 2
Innovator Aluren 1
43 Lands 1
Cephalid Breakfast 1
Solidarity 1
American meta: 2 Tournaments = 16 Top 8 slots
Threshold 7
Landstill 2
Ichorid 1
Cephalid Breakfast 1
43 Land 1
Innovator Aluren 1
Aggro Loam 1
UBW Fish 1
R/g Vial Goblins 1
As we can see, Threshold and Standstill are the DTB. But Threshold is alot more relevant (44% vs. 28%) in the American meta than the DTB forum would suggest (33%).
I'm still suggesting seperate lists for American and non-American metagames. It makes things cleaner and alot less deceiving.
To those complaining about the lack of European meta inclusion:
Look how many people on The Source are principally from the United States. Consider where the epicenter of Legacy tournaments for the ENTIRE WORLD currently is. Consider how the East Coast American Meta and the European Meta look nothing alike.
It makes sense to do it the way they are. It isn't nice and shiny and fair, but it is necessary to provide the most accurate information to their principle constituents.
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