[Article] Dredging Through Two Tournaments

[frogboy]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/l...urnaments.html

Some folks wanted more specific, in-game strategy.

[xsockmonkeyx]

I thought it was a good article. The tournament reports were well done and they offer some insight into your thought process as a Dredge player attacking various strategies.

I think your next article about dredge should focus on beating the hate cards. If there is wisdom to be shared about winning with dredge its going to be about how to beat Leyline, Crypt/Relic, and Ravenous Trap. Perhaps you could do some documented practices game, like when Bardo did "The Lackey and the Mongoose" series, to illustrate what you are doing when fighting through hate cards.

[Forbiddian]

Opponents:
Threshold, Goblins, Threshold, Counterbalance, Threshold, Aggro Loam.

Next tournament:
Counterbalance, Counterbalance, Merfolk, Aggro Loam, Merfolk (loss), Threshold, Merfolk (loss).

It does show that the new Ichorid build is a lot more consistent than the other builds -- it won a ton of favorable matchups without dropping very many games (and in almost every game, it threatened a win if the opponent didn't come up with some serious answers). I think the old builds, especially the LED builds drop a lot of games randomly.


It doesn't dissuade any of the fears of a bad Merfolk/Combo matchup, and I really think that's what keeps it from placing in a big tournament. In a tournament where 3-0-2 makes the top 8, you can dodge combo and make it to the top, but as tournaments get longer, I'd rather play a deck that has at least a passable matchup against everything, especially if I'm a player skilled enough to dominate with an average deck.

[SlopeeJ]

I'd rather play a deck that has at least a passable matchup against everything, especially if I'm a player skilled enough to dominate with an average deck.

Seems like your talking about dredge there or maybe any other tier 1 deck in legacy? It seems from your post you don't like dredge/playing vs dredge? If that is true then that is okay, but you still can't deny how powerful of a deck it is, esp if people don't have dedicated slots for it. As max said 3-4 relics doesn't seem like enough

I was the one who won the 2nd tourney, should I not play Merfolk because it gets crushed by zoo/goblins? How is Merfolk still getting to the top? That is why legacy is awesome, any day any deck can win or lose depending on the cards drawn AND skill of the player. Was I the best player at the tourney, I seriously doubt it....

Max is saying Dredge has a pretty good game vs everything and can beat most hate for the win which is def true. Does it win every game and beat everyone no it doesn't. Also one of Max's arguments are that there are not a lot of people playing dredge and if they are are they really playing it right? That might have something to do with the top 8 appearances.

[Avier]

Good reports.

I didn't comment on your previous article but my critique is limited. The first is that I feel like you pushed Ravenous Trap to the side. The card is very good, and playing around it slows you down. My second is that discarding your dredger as opposed to running out your discard outlet into Fow/Daze is okay, it slows your clock against the aggro deck (Merfolk).

A couple of points as a Merfolk player. While Dredge isn't a deck I want to see, I don't think its a terrible match up. To be fair I have a friend who plays Dredge and we've played the match up a number of times, keeping me familiar. My board has 2x Propaganda and 3x Relic. Stifle is in the main. All of these together keep the game in my favor. In post board games I have around a 60% win rate. Game one is more in his favor, along the lines of 70-30 his favor. Most Dredge players are not ready for Propaganda.

I think your list is pretty solid. I've asked why FKZ isnt in the board for a while. I think a single Iona will beat a fair number of decks however over say, Darkblast. I realize it's your list but Iona seems much better then Darkblast as it has the "oops I win" moment. My next question is Angel of Despair in the board. I see it as a "bad" Woodfall Primus or Testradon. Is hitting a creature that important? What creatures do you need to hit?

[FoolofaTook]

Very nice reports. I'd love to see a report specifically on the combo matchups and how you play around opponents who are trying to do what you do, which is to limit interactivity.

[paK0]

Liked the article a lot, well, I generally like all well written tournament reports, but the ones on dredge are so rare that this is a nice change.

[AngryTroll]

My next question is Angel of Despair in the board. I see it as a "bad" Woodfall Primus or Testradon. Is hitting a creature that important? What creatures do you need to hit?

You need to be able to nail Blazing Archon. The other option is Duplicant, but Angel of Despair is more versatile (obviously).

[junkdiver]

Hey Frogboy, great article and report.

Just wanted to ask if maybe you thought you would have rather had 3x firestorm instead of the 3x leylines for those 2 tourneys?

Gives you some uncounterable discard, which would have been great against all the daze aggro you faced. Not to mention a resolved firestorm vs merfolk is obviously very good.

Anyways, it's great stuff, thanks for sharing!

[frogboy]

cross-post:

I am 4-3 against Merfolk in tournaments. All of my notes are on my old laptop, but it was a decent matchup in testing. Games where they come out with a fast multiple-Lord draw are hard to win if you can't dredge into some Zombies by turn three or four, but I think you're a favorite on balance. Assuming your dredges don't just brick, the problems come from getting Echoing Truthed and having them use Reejery or Sovereign to push through damage.

Echoing Truth is a card you have to aggressively Therapy away, and you want to make sure that you are always trading Zombies, attacking, and not letting situations come up where a single Truth blows you out. Because of Truth, leaving a bunch of Zombies on defense is sort of loose, so you usually only want one or two, which is why Reejery can be frustrating. The presence of Relic also makes the DDD option less attractive, but you also don't want to just move in on a Tribe and get Dazed out of the game. If you ever get to Ancestor's Chosen you obviously win, and you can grind a lot of games out with Zombies and 3/1s.

Like, if you don't hit a Zombie in your first two dredges *and* Merfolk has a counter for any Imps or Tribes you might try to block with, you are behind if their draw is remotely aggressive. You can still win those games, but you will probably have to stick Breakthrough or Coliseum to do so. Conversely, if you do get 1-3 Zombies early, you are ahead; their deck is essentially all 2/2s and 3/3s and you can stack block reasonably effectively while always threatening Dread Return or Breakthrough.

Combo matchups are essentially about hitting them with as many Therapies as possible and hoping they don't Chant you, untap, and kill you.

I'd rather play a deck that has at least a passable matchup against everything, especially if I'm a player skilled enough to dominate with an average deck.

The probability of winning a match does not vary from round to round, aside from any theories you have about how the metagame will impact which decks are in which bracket. Further, not playing a deck because of its combo matchup means that no one would ever play Zoo, and obviously that isn't the case

Darkblast is a twelfth card with dredge that destroys problematic creatures. You don't *need* the twelfth dredge card but it is useful in game one scenarios where you are casting Breakthrough on turn two with no fear. You also want the third Thug, so that isn't a good cut. I have yet to encounter a single game where Iona would have won me a game that a Troll would not, and I'm pretty sure that most people are so enamored with their 7/7 flying Meddling Mages that they never stop to consider that the other guy wouldn't be capable of beating a 12/12 either, except that you always want the Troll in your opening hand and you always want Iona to be like twenty cards down.

Angel/Duplicant hit Blazing Archon. Duplicant is probably better for that specific purpose; Angel is better for stuff at large. Terastodon is better at killing 'stuff' than Angel, and I'll be testing Duplicant at some point.

[Forbiddian]

The probability of winning a match does not vary from round to round, aside from any theories you have about how the metagame will impact which decks are in which bracket.

I understand this. What I meant to say is: Ichorid is a metagame deck that can be used to beat a small metagame with favorable matchups, but I predict it won't be successful at a large event.

[Wargoos]

I understand this. What I meant to say is: Ichorid is a metagame deck that can be used to beat a small metagame with favorable matchups, but it won't be successful at a large event.

26th out of 2200 players with LEDDredge (a rather "unstable" version)
This is supposed to be not successive?
NQN would like to have a word with you...

[Forbiddian]

26th out of 2200 players with LEDDredge (a rather "unstable" version)
This is supposed to be not successive?
NQN would like to have a word with you...

Oh wait, you're serious.

The fact that the best Ichorid player (assuming Ichorid made up ~5-10% of the metagame like it did in the tournaments I looked at) only placed 26th means that Ichorid did way below average, even for top players. I've forgotten how to run the distribution, but I think you can describe each slot as a poisson distribution with probability of success equal to the background percentage of the metagame, then check for if you over or undershot.

I mean, basically if your deck is 10% of the meta, you expect 10% of the top slots (and more if you want to claim you're the best deck). That means if you look at the top say, 50 finishers, you'd expect more than 5 Ichorid players up there. I haven't looked at the data, but just based on Ichorid's best finisher only making it to 26th, I doubt it. But you can check and see whether or not Ichorid is actually performing better than expected or worse than expected via that experiment.

[frogboy]

I understand this. What I meant to say is: Ichorid is a metagame deck that can be used to beat a small metagame with favorable matchups, but I predict it won't be successful at a large event.

The only deck I actively don't want to play is Tendrils, and that's true for half the format. Metagame decks are constructed to attack specific decks and plans. Dredge is constructed to ignore the opponent until it decides to Mind Twist him and play a 12/12.

[Wargoos]

Oh wait, you're serious.

The fact that the best Ichorid player (assuming Ichorid made up ~5-10% of the metagame like it did in the tournaments I looked at) only placed 26th means that Ichorid did way below average, even for top players. I've forgotten how to run the distribution, but I think you can describe each slot as a poisson distribution with probability of success equal to the background percentage of the metagame, then check for if you over or undershot.

I mean, basically if your deck is 10% of the meta, you expect 10% of the top slots (and more if you want to claim you're the best deck). That means if you look at the top say, 50 finishers, you'd expect more than 5 Ichorid players up there. I haven't looked at the data, but just based on Ichorid's best finisher only making it to 26th, I doubt it. But you can check and see whether or not Ichorid is actually performing better than expected or worse than expected via that experiment.

So you're basically saying that placing 26th is still a bad outcome for a deck of which you think to perform worse the bigger the event is?

[Zappa]

I am not really having much difficulty versus ANT, as I am more versus Bant. Maybe its just due to the Cabal Therapies, and the Unmasks and Ancestor's Chosen in the Sideboard. But some reason I have more difficulty versus Bant. Which is why I am always worried about going below 4 Ichorids. There are many times when I brought out Ichorid, and have not yet hit a single Cabal Therapy, and Ichorid just gets nailed with Swords to Plowshares. If he did get sworded, I am not too worried since I know theres still 3 more coming... but I can't really Imagine when that happens if you have only 3 Ichorids, meaning you'll only have 2 left.

My decklist isn't that far off, you run 1 more tribe, 1 darkblast.. while i run 1 Iona and a 4th Ichorid. But, I dunno Ichorid seems to be the slot I just cannot touch due to the above problem. He always gets nailed with an STP, and I can't really afford to sit back and wait for therapy, I need to keep the pressure going and not let up. But yes Bant is one of the decks that I always see.

[kicks_422]

I thoroughly liked the article. It gave me insights on the right way of playing the deck.

So would you say that, since the deck almost always wins Game 1, in Game 2 on the draw, with say a hand with a land, a discard outlet, and a dredger, it's almost always the correct pay to discard the dredger first and then playing the land and the outlet on the second turn?

[Artowis]

I'd rather play a deck that has at least a passable matchup against everything,

Not to be rude, but such a deck doesn't actually exist. In fact in every single format right now, the only deck I could safely say that about is Jund in Standard.

[Ozymandias]

It really depends on what you're playing against, which will inform your mulligan decisions. For instance, versus a deck with Crypt as it GY hate (say, Tempo Thresh) City, Tribe, Thug Troll Ichorid Bridge DR is most likely keepable, because you can just slow-roll, and recover quickly with the cards in hand. That same hand is total garbage versus Aggro Loam, as competent players will aggressively mull to Leyline (75% chance of finding one by a mull to 5). Therefore, General rules are fairly useless

[Forbiddian]

So you're basically saying that placing 26th is still a bad outcome for a deck of which you think to perform worse the bigger the event is?

26th is the BEST performer. If one person played it and got 26th, that would be outstanding, but a lot of people played Ichorid and only a couple made it up that high.

Although I stand corrected after examining some data:

Ichorid did average at least on day 1. In the first sample (of 106), 6 Ichorid players were there. Day 2, 13 Ichorid players (5.5% of the metagame), so about an even day 2 percentage. That means Ichorid, on day 1, was an average deck (although I wish they had more data -- stupid WotC).

But still enough data to do a calculation.


Assumption H0: Ichorid performs average (i.e. its position is randomly distributed with even probabilities to end up in each slot first to 237th).

Ichorid has 13 out of 237 of the metagame. It has a 50.0% chance of its best finisher finishing 12th or better. Its best finisher actually was 26th (according to you, I couldn't find data for that). Assuming Ichorid performed only average, 78.8% of the time, it would perform that well or better.


So it performed about average day 1 and a little less than average day 2. Honestly I expected to see worse numbers, but still: Ichorid is an average deck.