Most common cards at GP Chicago Day 2

[georgjorge]

There's been talk about the GP Chicago Top 8, but I think that in general the Day 2 breakdown says a lot more about the format than the Top 8. Making Day 2 in a GP is like making Top 8 at a 100+ player tournament, it's a sure sign of a deck being competitive (though Byes distort the results somewhat).

EDIT: I had estimated some rough numbers about what were the most played cards on Day 2, but GreenOne took up the task of actually counting them, so I edited his numbers into this post (more detailed infos see some posts below)...

Out of 132 decks, there are

70 playing Wasteland
66 playing Force of Will
66 playing Brainstorm
54 playing Tarmogoyf
46 playing Daze
45 playing Sensei's Divining Top
43 playing Ponder
37 playing Counterbalance
34 playing Swords to Plowshares
33 playing Aether Vial
33 playing Dark Confidant
30 playing Thoughtseize
25 playing Spell Snare
24 playing Standstill


Popular cards who didn't make that list include Dark Ritual, Nimble Mongoose, Stifle (maindeck), or Life from the Loam.

So let's see...apart from Wasteland, that's

1. disruption (blue)
2. card draw (blue)
3. beater (green)
4. disruption (blue)
5. card draw (artifact)
6. card draw (blue)
7. permanent disruption (blue)
8. removal (white)
9. creature enabler (artifact)
10. permanent card draw (black)
11. disruption (black)
12. disruption (blue)
13. card draw (blue)


Interesting, isn't it ?

[Nihil Credo]

It's quite unsurprising once you consider

only counting decks showing up more than five times on Day 2...

Which makes me wonder: why? Either their cards won't make the cut or, if some of them do, it means they're played a lot through multiple archetypes, so they should be taken into consideration. Thoughtseize, StP, Chalice and Confidant come to mind here.

[memnarch]

Its not surprising when you consider the thresh dominance still and the overlap between archetypes. For instance landstill is a big player and Merfolk use standstill as well. And wasteland is used in sooo many archetypes. I'm at of the loop on tourneys. Is it still going? Do we have a final report of best decks?

[georgjorge]

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

[etrigan]

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

If you're going to do a breakdown like this, and decklists are available, you should take the time to do it correctly.

For instance, I counted 31 decks playing 4x Aether Vial, and one playing 3x.

[GreenOne]

Slowly doing the work. Going to edit that post with more results. EDIT: done.

132 total decks.
More played cards in order from the most played to the less played (excluding basics, duals, fetches).

FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 2
Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck playing it: 3,98
Average per deck: 1,99
Wasteland:
Number of decks playing it: 70
How many: 4x53 + 3x15 + 1x2 = 259
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,96
Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90
Daze
Number of decks playing it: 56
How many: 4x38 + 3x14 + 2x3 +1x1 = 201
Average per deck playing it: 3,59
Average per deck: 1,52
Ponder
Number of decks playing it: 43
How many: 4x26 + 3x6 + 2x11 = 144
Average per deck playing it: 3,35
Average per deck: 1,09
Sensei's Divining Top
Number of decks playing it: 45
How many: 4x15 + 3x21 + 2x5 + 1x4 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,04
Average per deck: 1,04
Counterbalance
Number of decks playing it: 37
How many: 4x26 + 3x11 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,04
Swords to Plowshares
Number of decks playing it: 34
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 + 1x1 = 132
Average per deck playing it: 3,88
Average per deck: 1
Aether Vial
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 = 131
Average per deck playing it: 3,97
Average per deck: 0,99
Thoughtseize
Number of decks playing it: 30
How many: 4x15 + 3x6 + 2x7 + 1x2 = 94
Average per deck playing it: 3,13
Average per deck: 0,71
Standstill
Number of decks playing it: 24
How many: 4x20 + 3x4 = 92
Average per deck playing it: 3,83
Average per deck: 0,70
Spell Snare
Number of decks playing it: 25
How many: 4x7 + 3x13 + 2x5 = 77
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,58
Duress
Number of decks playing it: 18
How many: 4x11 + 3x4 + 2x2 +1x1 = 61
Average per deck playing it: 3,38
Average per deck: 0,46
Lion's Eye Diamond
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x13 + 3x1 = 55
Average per deck playing it: 3,93
Average per deck: 0,42
Dark Ritual
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x11 = 44
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,33

It's worth noting that Goyf, Fow, Brainstorm and Wasteland have basically the same showings, with the other cards being a lot less present.

[godryk]

Not to be harsh, I really appreciate the work you're doing, but I'd like to point out: what do you understand by average per deck?

I mean:

FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck: 2

Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

Same happens to other cards:

Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck: 1,99

Isn't avarage copies per deck equal to total number of copies of a card divided by the number of decks playing it? In the case of Brainstorm (66 decks playing it, only playing 3 copies) the average would be 263/66=3,98, which sounds much better to me.

But, I insist, I'm far from being an expert in "statistic" an maybe this post it's a total nonsense.

[ParkerLewis]

Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

That just means he meant average between the TOTAL number of decks. Not average between only the decks that played it.

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number betweend decks that played the card ?

Or you could just give both. Or none, since it can be directly deducted from the previous informations : )

[godryk]

Thank you all for enlighten me.

I incorrectly assumed he meant: average per deck playing the card, which wasn't obviously what was written.

EDIT: I've seen you've added the average por deck playing the card, I think the whole thing gets more interesting. Thanks again.

[Taurelin]

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number between decks that played the card ?

I would say yes. If 50 decks play 4x FoW, and 50 don't play blue at all, that would mean the average number is 2 (per deck, total). Now, that number seems rather insignificant to me.

If you say, however, of those decks using FoW, the average number is 4, that would mean: If you put FoW in a deck, the corrrect number is 4. And this is a relevant observation, imho.

[GreenOne]

Bonus Section: the beaterz of legacy in order of popularity, analyzing only day 2 of the GP obv.

Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90

Dark Confidant
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 2x1 = 130
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,98

Mogg Fanatic
Number of decks playing it: 23
How many: 4x20 + 3x2 + 2x1 = 88
Average per deck playing it: 3,82
Average per deck: 0,67

Goblin Lackey
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 4x17 = 68
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,52

Mishra's Factory
Number of decks playing it: 16
How many: 4x15 + 3x1 = 63
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,48

Mutavault
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x9 + 3x4 + 2x1 = 50
Average per deck playing it: 3,57
Average per deck: 0,38

Nimble Mongoose
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x10 + 3x1 = 43
Average per deck playing it: 3,91
Average per deck: 0,33

Trygon predator (Majority in the MD)
Number of decks playing it: 20
How many: 3x3 + 2x16 + 1x1 = 42
Average per deck playing it: 2,1
Average per deck: 0,32

Sower of Temptation (circa 2/3 MD 1/3 SB)
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 3x7 + 2x9 + 1x1 = 40
Average per deck playing it: 2,35
Average per deck: 0,30

Vexing Shusher (circa half MD, half SB)
Number of decks playing it: 12
How many: 4x6 + 3x3 + 2x1 + 1x2 = 37
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,28

Trinket Mage
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x2 + 3x4 + 2x8 = 36
Average per deck playing it: 2,57
Average per deck: 0,27

Merrow Reejerey
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x8 =32
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,24

Tombstalker
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x3 + 3x1 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 22
Average per deck playing it: 2,75
Average per deck: 0,17

Phyrexian Dreadnought
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x1 + 3x3 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 2,5
Average per deck: 0,15

Golgari Grave-Troll
Number of decks playing it: 5
How many: 4x5 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,15

Magus of the Moon
Number of decks playing it: 6
How many: 4x2 + 3x2 +2x1 +1x1 = 17
Average per deck playing it: 2,83
Average per deck: 0,13

Figure of Destiny
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Kird Ape
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Vendilion Clique
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 3x1 + 2x4 + 1x2 = 13
Average per deck playing it: 1,86
Average per deck: 0,10

Spellstutter Sprite
Number of decks playing it: 3
How many: 4x3 = 12
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,09

Wild Nacatl
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Painter's Servant
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Progenitus
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 1x7 = 7
Average per deck playing it: 1
Average per deck: ---

Nantuko Shade
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x1 + 2x1 = 6
Average per deck playing it: 3
Average per deck: 0,05

Hypnotic Specter
Number of decks playing it: 1
How many: 4
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,03


Decks playing creatures in the MD and NOT playing Tarmogoyf*:
17 Goblin
9 Merfolk
5 Dredge
4 Burn/RDW (fanatics+Keldon Marauders..)
2 Progenitus Elves
2 Affinity
1 Monored Painter
1 Faerie Stompy
1 Salvager's combo
1 Faeries
1 MonoU Painter
1 Dragon Stompy
1 Natural Order
1 Slivers
1 Countertop
1 StifleNought

Total decks: 49
Total decks excluding Tribal decks: 19
So,
61,06% of the decks playing creatures are packing goyf.
83,14% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are packing goyf

This includes decks playing combo-creatures, like Painter, Salvagers, Gamekeepers, Ichorid, Progenitus.

* Excluding 5 Landstill (1 Eternal Dragon) and 1 UW control (2 eternal dragon)

[Peter_Rotten]

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate.

[GreenOne]

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate.

Thanks! I added Magus of the Moon, Hippie and Shade.
If you'd like any other creature to be in the list just tell me and I'll add it, it just takes a couple minutes.

[etrigan]

Thanks for this.

Are you using a small program for this, or doing it all manually?

[GreenOne]

Manually.

On the discussion: Goyf is un-arguably the creature of the GP, with the other creatures A LOT less played:
1 Confidant every 2 goyfs
1 Mogg Fanatic every 3 goyfs,
1 Mishra's Factory every 4 goyfs,
1 Mongoose/Trygon Predator every 6 goyfs.

Blue is the most played colour in the format, and people is playing less and less non-goyf beaters, to play more utility creatures that can be categorized IMO:

Card Draw: Dark Confidant #2
Support to Standstill: Mishra #4 and Mutavault #5
Anti-Counterbalance: Trygon Predator #8, Vexing Shusher #10
Anti-Goyf: Sower fo temptation #9

So, basically the played creatures in legacy are either, in order:
- Goyf
- To draw cards
- Goblins
- To beat blue
- To beat Goyf

This makes me quite sad.

[majikal]

Better to have one overpowered creature that everyone can play than to have a creature that one deck can play and no one can answer, IMHO.

[georgjorge]

Things that surprise me...

Thoughtseize isn't among the more popular cards! However, unless I miscounted, there are still 43 decks that play either Duress or Thoughtseize (or both), the decks with Duress being pretty much ANT. So the 1cc black spot discard is still there, just split between two cards (it makes some sense to count it this way since unlike Ponder/Brainstorm, there are very few decks that play both of them).

In the months before the GP, many people said that the three creatures you needed to handle were Goyf, Tombstalker, and Dreadnought. But here 'Stalker and 'Nought show up in very small numbers only, in only 8 out of 132 decks, so maybe you don't have to tailor the removal you play to them. There were more Trygons and Sowers around than those two !

I'd count Mutavault and Factories as one (very few decks play both), which would make 2/2 manlands the third most played beater after Goyf and Confidant.

And as for Goyf, that number - 83% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are playing Goyfs - says it all.

[GreenOne]

Added Thoughtseize and Duress. Feel free to ask for other cards.

[GreenOne]

Added Dark Ritual and LED.

Evidently combo is not overpowered, even with the new AN tool OR is really underplayed OR the meta sucked for it. There's 1 Dark Ritual every 6 Force of Wills, and not every deck running dark ritual comboes where every deck packing force well.. counters.

The dominance of blue aggrocontrol is subtle but present. I mean, every counterbalance deck has a beautiful combo matchup, a quite good aggro matchup (due to Goyf and Counterbalance), and a fair matchup against control.
Where's the bad matchups? I can see only really good ones and fair ones.

[Skeggi]

Feel free to ask for other cards.

Any Chub Toads?